Stock picking based on quarterly earnings momentum has consistently underperformed for retail investors over the past decade, with data from S&P 500 showing that only 8% of actively managed funds beat the index after fees. I tried following analyst upgrades for two years and my portfolio lagged the market by nearly 4% annually, which made me question whether any forecast is worth the trouble. Maybe the real debate isn't about skill, but about whether we should even try to beat the market when index funds cost 0.03% and deliver 10% average returns.