I've been swing trading tech stocks for five years, and every time I think I've found a reliable pattern, the market humbles me. Last quarter I made 18% on a momentum play, but gave it all back on a speculative biotech gamble. With retail investing so easy now, I wonder if we're confusing luck with skill. Can anyone genuinely beat the S&P 500 over a decade through active stock picking, or is index fund investing the only rational choice for most people?