I have spent the last decade poring over archives from the American Civil War, and I remain convinced that the South's defeat was sealed long before the first shot at Fort Sumter. The Confederacy's industrial capacity was only a fraction of the North's, and their reliance on cotton exports made them economically fragile. Even with brilliant generals like Lee, they never had the logistical backbone to sustain a long war. Yes, they fought fiercely, but I think the outcome was already predetermined by 1860—do you agree?